Fed Announces Open-Ended Bond Purchases - QE3

The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced that it is launching a new program of open-ended bond purchases, so-called QE3, saying it will buy $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities each month as long as the economy needs it, starting Friday.

It's also keeping in place so-called Operation Twist, which consists of swapping short-dated securities for longer-term securities, as well as reinvesting the proceeds of maturing securities, so the central bank will be adding $85 billion of long-term securities each month through the end of the year.

The Fed is also extending its plan to keep interest rates exceptionally low until at least through mid-2015. Fed funds rates are currently targeted at a rate between 0% and 0.25%.

The Fed said it's acting "to support a stronger economic recovery" and expects the new program to put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets and help make financial conditions more accommodative.

U.S. stocks added to Thursday gains after the Federal Open Market Committee announced a new round of buying mortgage-backed securities.

Operation Twist Extension: Latest Round of Monetary Easing

The Federal Reserve on June 20th it announced its seventh installment of unconventional monetary policy since running out of orthodox ammunition in late 2008, when short-term interest rates fell, in effect, to zero. It would purchase $267 billion of long-term bonds by the end of the year, paid for from the proceeds of sales of short-term bonds already in its portfolio.

The move extends a program, called Operation Twist (because it "twists" the slope of the yield curve on bonds) . To lower long-term interest rates down in the hope of stimulating demand, the Fed announced Operation Twist program last autumn and due to expire this month, under which the Fed has swapped $400 billion of short-term bonds for long-term ones. Previous initiatives have included purchasing bonds with newly created money (“quantitative easing”, or QE), reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds, and verbally committing to keeping rates near zero for ever longer periods.

This latest round of monetary easing, like its predecessors,  was motivated by the economy’s failure to grow as quickly as the Fed had forecast. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s main policymaking body, now expect growth of between 1.9% and 2.4% this year, down sharply from their April forecast of growth between 2.4% and 2.9%.

Moody’s Slashed Credit Ratings of Big Banks

Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday slashed the credit ratings of 15 large financial firms. Citigroup and Bank of America, two United States banks that were hit hard in the financial crisis, are now rated only two notches above junk. While Morgan Stanley avoided a worst-case scenario of a three-notch downgrade, its rating slipped by two levels.

The downgrades are a serious blow for the banking industry, which is already dealing with the European sovereign debt crisis, a weak American economy and new regulations.

Moody’s downgrades are part of a broad effort to make its analysis more rigorous. The financial crisis stained the reputation of credit rating agencies. Both companies attached high ratings to mortgage-backed bonds that later suffered big losses in the housing bust.

Before the announcement on Thursday, bank shares continued to fall. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley were all down for the day.

JPMorgan's $2 Billion Loss

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Thursday revealed that the banking giant lost a $2 billion due to a massive trade that went sour, and that the losses could climb by another $1 billion in the coming days. Mr. Dimon said on Thursday that JPMorgan’s “synthetic credit portfolio,” an amalgam of derivatives and hedging bets that blew up in recent weeks, was part of “a strategy to hedge the firm’s overall credit exposure.”

Several days after announcing a $2 billion loss in its chief investment office, JPMorgan Chase is clearing house. Matthew E. Zames, the JPMorgan executive, was tapped Monday to replace the outgoing chief investment officer, Ina Drew.

The bank most likely structured the trade in a way that magnified losses (see the image). Read more “JPMorgan's Appalling $2 Billion Loss”

 

(The illustration is a courtesy off The New York Times)

S&P & Fitch lowered J.P. Morgan rating due to $2B loss

S&P cuts outlook on J.P. Morgan to negative

Standard & Poor's said late Friday it lowered its ratings outlook on J.P. Morgan Chase to negative from stable because of the bank's unexpected $2 billion loss on derivatives. S&P kept its A/A-1 issuer credit ratings on the bank and its A+/A-1 ratings on its subsidiaries.

S&P said it could lower its ratings by a notch if its determines that risk management mistakes were not limited to the specific credit portfolio mentioned late Thursday, or if it believes management is pursuing a more aggressive investment strategy than originally believed.

Fitch downgrades J.P. Morgan after trading loss

Fitch Ratings said on Friday it downgraded J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s long-term credit rating to A-plus from AA-minus, saying that while the $2 billion trading loss disclosed by the bank on Thursday is "manageable," the potential reputational risk and risk-governance issues raised are no longer consistent with an AA-minus rating. "The magnitude of the loss and ongoing nature of these positions implies a lack of liquidity," Fitch said in a statement after the stock market closed. "It also raises questions regarding J.P. Morgan's risk appetite, risk management framework, practices and oversight; all key credit factors."

Stock market reaction

Shares of J.P. Morgan closed down 9.3% on Friday and slipped further in after-hours trading.

U.S. stocks mostly slid Friday to a second weekly decline after a rise in consumer sentiment failed to outweigh J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s $2 billion trading loss, disclosed by the bank late Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.44 points, or 0.3%, to 12,820.60, off 1.7% from the week-ago close. The S&P 500 retreated 4.6 points, or 0.3%, to 1,353.39, down 1.2% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite managed a fractional gain to close at 2,933.82, down 0.8% from last Friday's finish

Fed considers Sterilized Bond Buying to boost economy

The Federal Reserve is considering a new type of bond-buying program designed boost the economy in the months ahead while curbing future inflation, according the Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve officials have used different types of bond-buying programs since 2008. All of them are aimed to drive down long-term interest rates to spur investment and spending by businesses and households. Now they're exploring three different approaches, which are:

1. The Fed could use the method they used aggressively from 2008 into 2011, in which the Fed effectively printed money and used it to purchase Treasury securities and mortgage debt. The Fed has already acquired more than $2.3 trillion of securities in several rounds of purchases using this approach, widely known as "quantitative easing," or QE.
2. They could reprise a program launched last year in which it is selling short-term Treasury securities and using the proceeds to buy long-term bonds. This $400 billion program, known as "Operation Twist," allows the Fed to buy bonds without creating new money.
3. In the new novel approach, the Fed could print money to buy long-term bonds, but restrict how investors and banks use that money by employing new market tools they have designed to better manage cash sloshing around in the financial system. This is known as "sterilized" QE.

Greece In Default

~ Smartmoney.com ~ Ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P's) cut Greece's long-term credit rating on Monday to selective default from already junk-level CC category. It is a result of debt write-off deal with private creditors that is part of a second EU bailout of the country.

The rating firm says their move was triggered by the terms Greece put in the tentative deal agreed last Tuesday, which amounts to a 53.5 percent write-down. Following the February 21 debt deal, Greece amends its sovereign bond documentation with collective action clauses (CACs). Greece has been seeking to avoid an outright default on its massive debt by negotiating a "voluntary" debt exchange with creditors.

A CAC binds all bondholders of a certain series to amended payment terms in the event that a certain quorum of creditors has agreed to the terms, S&P explained. If a large majority of creditors accept the new terms then all the creditors need to agree, which would have consequences for bondholders.

Map of S&P downgraded ratings for 9 European countries

Standard & Poor's decision to strip France of its AAA credit rating and downgrade eight other Euro zone countries slammed a continent struggling with a debt crisis and an economic slowdown.

Here is the map of countries affected by the S&P ratings downgraded on Jan. 13. The downgraded ratings range from AA+ for France & Austria to BB for Portugal.

Standard and Poor's Credit Rating Downgraded for 9 Euro Zone Countries on Jan. 13

Credit Ratings Cut for 9 Euro Zone Countries

Standard & Poor’s downgraded the debt ratings of France, Italy and seven other European countries on Friday. The action may have more symbolic than fundamental financial impact but served as a reminder that Europe’s economic woes were far from over. The downgrades may also be a blow to the euro zone’s ability to fight off a worsening debt crisis.

S&P ended France and Austria's AAA status and also downgraded Italy's and Spain's credit rating by two notches and did the same for Portugal and Cyprus. The rating agency also cut ratings on Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia.

In December S.& P warned that it might downgrade many of the 17 nations that share the euro, largely because it said European politicians were moving too slowly to strengthen the monetary union and because the euro zone’s problems were propelling Europe toward its second recession in three years. Read more about S&P cutting credit ratings for 9 Euro Zone Nations.

U.S. sells 10-year notes at record lowest yield

A new landmark was set Wednesday for U.S. Treasury bond supply. The Treasury Department sold $21 billion, 10-year notes at a yield of 1.90%, the lowest level ever at auction. The auctioned yield is the rate the U.S. government pays to borrow cash in capital markets.

The Treasury received bids totaling $69.04 billion and accepted $21.00 billion. Primary dealers were awarded $9.29 billion, while indirect bidders--a category that includes foreign central bankers--were awarded $8.04 billion.

Bidders offered to buy 3.19 times the amount of debt sold, compared to an average of 3.15 times at the last four comparable auctions. Indirect bidders bought 38.3% of the sale, below the average of 46.9% of recent sales. Direct bidders, a group which includes domestic money managers, made up for the shortfall by purchasing another 17.4%, compared to 10% on average.

Central Bank supplied $76.9 billion to Treasury in 2011

The central bank transferred $76.9 billion in earnings to the U.S. Treasury during 2011. The transfer is slightly less than the record $79.3 billion transferred in 2010.

The Federal Reserve said it earned $83.6 billion in interest income from its massive portfolio of securities, which includes Treasury debt and mortgage securities. The Fed has been buying assets as part of a quantitative-easing program, an unconventional monetary policy designed to lower long-term interest rates and boost economic growth.

The transfers in the past two years are about twice the pre-quantitative-easing levels. Under Fed policy, residual Fed earnings are distributed to Treasury after covering expenses.

Fed decision hailed by investors, criticized by emerging markets

The U.S. stock markets surged to two-year high Thursday, Nov. 4, a day after the Federal Reserve’s decision to buy more government securities to stimulate the economy. the Dow was up 1.96 percent, at 11,437.84, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 1.93 percent, to 1,221.06.

Wednesday’s reaction to the Fed announcement was muted, although it was enough to send the Dow up 26.41 points on Wednesday to its highest close in two years. On Thursday, as investors absorbed the impact of the announcement, financial markets in Europe and Asia rose, and the dollar weakened.

The Fed pumps $1.2 trillion to the economy

The U.S. central bank would pump $1.2 trillion into economy to combat the worst global slowdown in decades, the Fed announced Wednesday, Mar. 18. The central bank’s plans to buy up to $300 billion long-term government bonds and some $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which would help revive the U.S. sagging housing market.

The Fed hasn't set out to influence long-term interest rates by buying long-term bonds since the 1960s.

By buying Treasurys and lifting the size for its programs to buy mortgage-backed securities and agency bonds, the Fed will boost money supply available for borrowing to combat the recession. The moves aims to lower mortgage rates and reduce the premium companies have to pay over the federal government to secure funding from the capital markets. The lower borrowing costs for consumers and companies are expected to prop up demand and spending in the U.S.

The Federal Reserve has been moving toward this quantitative easing policy since mid-September 2008. The policy is essentially required the Fed to print money to put the financial system back on its feet and jump-start the economy. But economists warned that such efforts could lead to long-term inflation, and could drive down the value of the dollar.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee also announced it would keep interest rates near zero, and said it expected its target interest rates to remain exceptionally low “for an extended period.” Interest rates in the U.S., the fed-funds target rate, has been in the range of 0%-0.25%. In all major economies, the interest rates have been pushed to ultra-low levels.

Moments after the Federal Reserve announced its plans, yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note posted their biggest drop in years as investors welcomed a big new buyer to the market for government debt. The central bank’s decision to fire up $1.2 trillion continued to sweep over world financial markets on Thursday, pushing the price of government bonds higher and dragging down the value of the dollar.

The Fed’s plan follows similar actions taken by central banks across the globe. The Bank of England is buying government securities, while the Swiss is selling francs to try to push down the value of their currency. The Bank of Japan announced Wednesday that it would also expand its purchase of government debt by almost 30 percent.

The markets are responding favorably to the U.S. Federal Reserve's bold $1.2 trillion spending plan. On Wall Street, stocks advanced on the day, but slipped on the next day. World stock markets were mostly higher the next day, Mar. 19.

The dollar has been sold off aggressively across the board in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision. The dollar extended its decline against the euro, the yen and other major currencies on Thursday.

Bond Market Provides Shelter During Grim Economy Period

Deflationary effect of harsh economic will push investors to take shelter in the relative safety of the bond market, Merrill Lynch said in a research report released on Friday, July 25, 2008. Investors should seek out safe yield in bonds as much as possible, whether in the Treasury market, the muni market or other high-quality fixed-income vehicles.

Despite current concerns about global inflation, U.S. economic prospects are so grim that deflationary pressures will prevail as commodities and stocks sell off is likely to take place during a painful economic period of recession. Back to the U.S. consumer recession of 1973-75, collapsing earnings and price-earnings multiples triggered a 40 percent peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 index.

U.S. households' bond exposure is not much more than 5 percent of their total assets, after the past two decades scrambles into stocks and then real estate. Consumers' rising inflation expectations as prices at the pump and the grocery story have surged in recent months have caused a bond market sell off.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the level of bond exposure was between 7 percent and 8 percent of total assets. Using that past level as a benchmark for comparison purpose, the current figure would imply the potential for incremental demand in bond, most of which would go to Treasuries and other higher-quality bonds as riskier corporate debt feels the pinch of a tough economy.