Record High of U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies in Third Quarter

More homeowners than ever are having trouble making their monthly mortgage payments, according to figures released Thursday. The figures underlined the level of stress on a large segment of the country, a situation that could put out the modest recovery in home prices over the last few months and impede any economic rebound.

The overall third-quarter delinquency rate is the highest since the association began keeping records in 1972. Nearly one in 10 homeowners with mortgages was at least one payment behind in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in its survey. It is up from about one in 14 mortgage holders in the third quarter of 2008.

The combined percentage of those in foreclosure as well as delinquent homeowners is 14.41 percent, or about one in seven mortgage holders. Mortgages with problems are concentrated in four states: California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.

In the first stage of the housing collapse, defaults and foreclosures were driven by subprime loans. As the subprime tide recedes, high-quality prime loans with fixed rates make up the largest share of new foreclosures. A third of the new foreclosures begun in the third quarter were this type of loan, traditionally considered the safest. Without jobs, borrowers usually cannot pay their mortgages.

In previous recessions, homeowners who lost their jobs could sell the house and move somewhere with better prospects, or at least a cheaper cost of living. This time around, many of the unemployed are finding that the value of their property is less than they owe.

U.S. leading indicators rose for 7th consecutive in Oct

U.S. leading economic indicators index rose for the seventh consecutive month in October, signaling the U.S. recovery is in place. The leading indicators rose 0.3% in October after an un-revised 1% gain in September, the Conference Board reported Thursday.

Six of the 10 indicators were positive. The index is up at a 10.2% annual pace in the last six months. The index of coincident indicators was unchanged in October after a 0.1% decline in September. The coincident index has been essentially flat since June

U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 26 Year High in October

The U.S. unemployment surged to hit its highest level in more than 26 years as employers cut more jobs in October. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2%, a sign the labor market continues to struggle as the economy emerges from its deep recession. The unemployment rate of 10.2% was the highest since April 1983.

The economy lost another 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million.

Despite the apparent end of the Great Recession, economic expansion has yet to translate into jobs, leaving tens of millions of people still struggling.

The pace of job loss continued to taper off in October, the precursor to eventual growth. Amid the paralyzing fear between November 2008 and April 2009 the economy shed an average of 645,000 jobs a month. The pace dropped to an average monthly loss of 357,000 jobs between May and July. And over the last three reports, average monthly job losses have slipped to 188,000.

Some experts see that as the economy expands, companies will use fresh profits to add to payrolls as they reach for increased sales. As workers spend their paychecks, they will create opportunities for other businesses, generating more jobs. But some doubt whether recent trends of a 3.5 percent annualized rate economy growth can continue, absent another dose of government spending.

News that the nation's unemployment rate rose above 10 percent last month didn't derail the stock market's strong gains in the week, which lifted major indexes more than 3 percent. The bad economic news reassured some investors that the Federal Reserve will have to hold interest rates low for some time.

Low interest rates tend to weaken demand for the dollar, which in turn gives a boost to stocks. When the dollar is weaker, U.S. goods are cheaper for buyers overseas. Companies that do business overseas also get a profit gain when their earnings are translated back into dollars.

U.S. GDP finally expanded in third quarter

The United States GDP grew in the third quarter ended in September, the first time its economy has expanded in more than a year. The economy expanded at a 3.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, ending the longest contraction since World War II.

The economy had been falling for four straight quarters, bottoming with a 6.4 percent decline in the first three months of this year, the steepest quarterly fall since 1982. The expansion matched the economy’s average annual growth rate from the last 80 years

The growth was driven by consumer spending, which rose 3.4% in the third quarter. Some of the largest components of growth, for instance, came from spending on car sales and house building, both areas that have been propped up by federal programs.

The recovery is expected to be slow and painful, as companies shed jobs and credit remains tight. Job-seekers probably will not see the benefits of a recovery for months to come.

The stock market surged in reaction to the news, a bigger-than-expected expansion in the U.S. economy. Stocks posted their biggest gain in more than two months Thursday. The Dow finished up 199.89 points, or 2.05%, to 9962.58, its largest one-day point gain since July 15, when it surged 257 points.

The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 2.25% to 1066.11, with gains in all its sectors, led by a 4.3% jump in financials and a 3.2% rise in its materials category.

Home prices continued to rise

The prices of U.S. homes in 20 metropolitan cities continued to rise for the fourth-straight month in August, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The home price stabilization added to signs of housing market improvement and economic stability in the United States.

In August the price index climbed by a seasonally adjusted 1% compared with July. Prices rose in 17 of 20 cities.

In the past year, the composite index is down 11.3% in the 20 cities. Prices are down 29.3% from the peak. Prices are where they were in the fall of 2003.

The Case-Shiller index lags behind the National Association of Realtors’ report on existing home sales, which have been issued for September. That number also showed improvement. Low prices and mortgage rates combined with the first-time buyers’ tax credit have spurred home sales. Congress is considering extending the tax credit that saves first-time buyers 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000.

Some investors have become concerned that such signs of improvement could prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus measures sooner than expected. Another factor likely to obstruct the market in the coming months is an increase in interest rates, as the Federal Reserve ceases its buying mortgage-backed securities.